MLS Golden Boot race: Who are football predictionsthe main contenders?

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I thought I knew something about goals. Well, I suspect it's going to be quite difficult to predict this season’s MLS Golden Boot presented by Audi.

Though Hugo Cuypers and Tai Baribo currently share the lead with seven goals heading into Matchday 11, nine players have tallied six goals or more and can be considered in the mix at this point. A whopping 18 in all have scored at least five times, and that doesn’t even include Lionel Messi. Here’s a few thoughts on the leading contenders among them.

What I do know at this early stage? This can be the best Golden Boot race we've had in a long time, because these are all guys that will score consistently throughout the season.

Chicago Fire FC’s star No. 9 is also right near the top of the expected goals category, which suggests Gregg Berhalter’s system is creating chances for him. Beyond the stats, there’s something else I notice.

Elite finishers have a mindset of ‘I need to be on the end of this play.’ It even shows in how they celebrate their goals. You can always see how much it means to certain strikers – like ecstasy mixed with relief. I see that in Cuypers. He's fun to watch around the penalty box: good movement, will stick his head in anywhere, doesn't take too many touches, usually looks for one-touch or two-touch finishes.

The early Golden Boot pacesetter has slowed down in recent weeks. But you’ve got to understand something: Kai Wagner has been hurt. The Union’s left back hits some of the league’s best crosses, and he’s already assisted on three of Baribo’s goals.

With Wagner whipping in balls, that's where he thrives. Philly like to get the ball out wide and deliver crosses in the box, and with Baribo, you’ll notice he usually just takes one or two touches in the buildup. He wants to lay it off and get into the box, because he knows the devastating service that comes from out wide when you're playing for Philly. He's a man who understands where he gets goals in this side.

Only goals in league play count towards the Golden Boot. But on Wednesday night, I found myself repeatedly rewinding a decisive moment from Vancouver’s big Concacaf Champions Cup win over Miami – when Brian White slipped away from two defenders to slot home the equalizer, that all-important away goal, with his left foot.

It was just such smart movement to find space, an awareness that comes from experience and natural goalscoring instincts, and it shows how the Whitecaps' man could keep pace with this pack. Look, I know I’ve been raving about my former teammate since 2019, and it’s for a reason. He’s a brilliant striker, very underrated, very unselfish. He does everything a No. 9 is supposed to do.

Interestingly enough, there are several teammates in the running, including this duo that reportedly cost FC Cincinnati upwards of $28 million over the winter. While traditionally that’s hard to sustain, these two already have six goals apiece, even though it feels like they’re still shifting through the gears at their new club.

Evander is probably one of my top three players to watch in the league. He just has a way of making the game look so easy with everything he does, even if it's world-class stuff. It’s like he's in his back garden, striking the ball casually into the top corner or gliding by players like they're not even there. That said, I don’t expect him to win the Golden Boot, even if he’s one of MLS’s most goal-dangerous No. 10s.

I like Kévin Denkey’s chances a bit better. Similar to White, he links play to help his team advance up the field, with a good understanding of when to drop into a pocket and when to run in behind. I would like to see Cincy treat him like Chicago with Cuypers or Philly with Baribo – find him and feed him early and often – because of the work he does for the team to bring other players into the game.

Here’s another pair, both on six apiece, and I like it because it's a throwback. I grew up watching and playing in 4-4-2s where the two strikers were competing for the Golden Boot. I'm thinking it must be fun for them to go back and forth in Quakes training sessions – they both obviously want to win, they're both competitive, but both still share the ball, so it's beautiful to watch.

How does Bruce Arena make this work? Well, they're two very clever players. Chicho Arango likes to drop into pockets more, whereas Josef Martínez tends to run in behind more. So they complement each other, and it makes them both that little bit more dangerous. Imagine being an opposing defender: You’ve got Chicho pulling into spaces, but at the same time, Martínez is running in behind – who do you go with?

What a difference a week makes. Nashville’s star Designated Player duo surged into the Golden Boot running via four and two goals, respectively, in last Saturday’s incredible 7-2 demolition of Chicago. Yes, it’s only one game, but watch this space, because now they're starting to link up and work together a little bit more.

Surridge strikes me as a patchy forward: He's one of those that might not score for six or seven games, then reel off a few and grow more confident. He's a little bit different. He likes drifting out to the channels, he has clean feet for a big guy. Can he really sustain a Boot push, though? I suspect Mukhtar, the 2022 Landon Donovan MLS MVP/Golden Boot winner and usually a shoot-first type, may need to focus on providing service to Surridge ahead of his own scoring ambitions if the Music City is to remain in this conversation.

I like the Minnesota strike duo’s relationship. They combine well and are both unselfish, but with a goalscoring mindset. Their team have struggled a little bit of late, because opponents understand that the Loons want to drop deep, then hit you on the break, and if you leave space in behind for those two to run into, you're going to be in trouble.

So they've been worked out a little over the last few weeks. Now they and coach Eric Ramsey’s staff must figure out what's that next level. How can they still be effective?

When I watch Alonso Martínez, I just think I would hate to have to defend against him. The one thing on the former winger’s mind is running behind, stretching the back line. If you play him in three or four times a half, he's going to get at least two good chances, and he's shown he can be a clinical finisher in that team.

I would like to see New York City FC use him more, in fact. I was blessed in the peak of my MLS career at New York Red Bulls, because I was a thing we called ‘Option A’: When we won possession back, teammates were supposed to spot my runs and look to play me in early, so I could go into games confident I’d get fed plenty of chances. I would like to see Martínez treated like that a little bit, because he’s shown he can finish efficiently.

Atlanta United simply haven’t been good enough as a group, and Latte Lath’s suffering because of it. It just seems like he’s had to feed off of scraps a little bit too much. I think if you were to drop him in a more direct team, he could possibly jump to the top of the goalscoring charts.

Wonderful player, great pace, the man can jump out of the stadium – his leap is unbelievable. I just don't think they use his strengths enough. Can Ronny Deila show the Five Stripes how to tap into what he's got to offer?

• Voices: Bradley Wright-Phillips
• Golden Boot
• Hugo Cuypers
• Tai Baribo
• Brian White
• Evander
• Kévin Denkey
• Cristian Arango
• Josef Martinez
• Sam Surridge
• Hany Mukhtar
• Kelvin Yeboah
• Tani Oluwaseyi
• Alonso Martínez
• Emmanuel Latte Lath

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