Decision Day Predictions: Wild Card spots,football updates Western Conference race & more

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There’s no Saturday on the MLS calendar quite like Decision Day.

With eight games kicking off at 6 pm ET and seven others set for 9 pm ET, the sheer chaos is unmatched. But while the simultaneous start times play their part, what’s at stake makes Decision Day extra special.

On Saturday, the Western Conference’s top seed will be decided. As will the West’s Wild Card spots. Who will land in each of those positions? Who will meet in the Eastern Conference’s Wild Card match? And who will secure home-field advantage out East?

Good questions.

Bracket Challenge: Audi 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs

Did you, dear reader, have Vancouver Whitecaps FC and San Diego FC battling for the Western Conference’s top seed on your preseason bingo card? No? Good. I didn’t either. But after 33 games each, Vancouver and San Diego have positioned themselves to have a shot at home-field advantage through the Western Conference Final.

There’s little doubt, however, that the Whitecaps have the edge – they’re my pick to clinch the West’s No. 1 spot.

Since Vancouver start Decision Day three points ahead of the expansion side, they only need a single point at home against FC Dallas (9 pm ET | MLS Season Pass, Apple TV). Even if they fall to Dallas, Vancouver would still claim the top spot if San Diego fail to win at the Portland Timbers (9 pm ET | MLS Season Pass, Apple TV).

The odds are stacked in the Whitecaps’ favor. With Thomas Müller in fantastic form and Ryan Gauld working his way into a larger role with every passing week (he played 24 minutes plus stoppage time in Vancouver’s 2-1 win at Orlando City last weekend, his longest appearance since his knee injury), things look even rosier for the Whitecaps.

San Diego, of course, have proven themselves time and time again in 2025. They’re every bit good enough to take down Portland at Providence Park. But contenting themselves with the second spot out West looks like a necessity.

In perhaps the highest-stakes battle of Decision Day, four Western Conference teams are fighting for the final two open playoff spots.

FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake currently occupy those precious Wild Card places. If the season ended today, they would face off in a one-game match to decide who meets Vancouver in Round One. But will Dallas and RSL keep their heads above the playoff line? Or will one or both of the Colorado Rapids and the San Jose Earthquakes move above the line in their stead?

Here’s how I see things going down on Saturday night.

Despite their tough matchup with Vancouver, Dallas will clinch a Wild Card spot thanks to their points advantage. They enter Decision Day on 41 points, one more than Colorado and RSL (40) and three more than San Jose (38).

There are also some tricky matchups ahead: the Rapids will host LAFC (9 pm ET | MLS Season Pass, Apple TV), while RSL travel to St. Louis CITY SC (9 pm ET | MLS Season Pass). It’s possible that both of those playoff hopefuls come up empty on Saturday, leaving Dallas and… San Jose in a prime position.

The Earthquakes have likely the easiest matchup of the weekend in a home clash with Austin FC (9 pm ET | MLS Season Pass). They have a real chance to claim all three points and catapult above at least RSL and Colorado. They’re far from controlling their own destiny, but I wouldn’t count out Bruce Arena's side just yet.

Everything to play for on Decision Day. ?? pic.twitter.com/MH55n3T2UW

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 13, 2025

While the Eastern Conference playoff field is set, the seedingis far from settled.

Heading into Decision Day, four teams – Nashville SC, Orlando, Chicago Fire FC, and the Columbus Crew – are all hoping to avoid the Wild Card spots. Only two, though, will have their wish fulfilled.

Nashville have the edge on points (54), but may be in real trouble. With Inter Miami coming to town and Lionel Messi setting his sights on some of Carlos Vela’s old records, a result could be hard to come by for Nashville (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass).

Orlando have a relatively easier matchup, as they'll visit Toronto FC (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass, Apple TV). Same with Chicago, who head to the New England Revolution (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass).

With those eminently winnable games on the calendar, Nashville could fall below Orlando and Chicago in the standings. They would be joined there by Columbus, who host the New York Red Bulls (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass). Even if the Crew win, victories from Chicago and Orlando will still see them stuck in the Wild Card places.

Come the East’s Wild Card game, it may just be a pair of teams in gold vying for a chance to square off with Supporters' Shield winners Philadelphia Union in Round One.

Here's how things stand in the East heading into Decision Day: pic.twitter.com/6JR01a0QNa

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 13, 2025

While the Union, FC Cincinnati, and Inter Miami are all locked into home-field advantage for Round One out East, the fourth home-field spot is still open. Three teams – Charlotte FC, New York City FC, and Nashville – can all claim it on Decision Day.

If Nashville fail to win against Miami (certainly possible), the East’s fourth seed will be either Charlotte or NYCFC. Both teams have difficult games coming up too: New York City will welcome Seattle Sounders FC (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass, Apple TV) and Charlotte will host Philly (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass).

Still, I’d rather see Seattle on Saturday than Philadelphia. While the Sounders have won their last two games, they haven’t looked quite like their usually scary selves since that Leagues Cup final victory over Inter Miami. They’re also locked into the West’s fifth seed with nothing truly to play for on their cross-country trip. And the Union can’t climb higher than their status as Supporters’ Shield winners, so there’s technically not much at stake for them, either.

Still, I’d bet head coach Bradley Carnell wants to use every possible opportunity to build attacking chemistry after Quinn Sullivan’s season-ending knee injury. Every rep counts for Philly in a way it doesn’t quite for Seattle. That gives NYCFC the edge in the race for home-field advantage – and I think they’ll claim it this weekend.

• Voices: Joseph Lowery
• Decision Day

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